Péter Horváth
POLICY ECONOMIST · EMPIRICAL MACROECONOMICS
I am a Research Economist at the Ministry of Finance of Hungary and a PhD Candidate in Economics at Corvinus University of Budapest. My work combines empirical macroeconomics, monetary policy, forecasting and econometric modelling to study how policy intervention and macro-financial shocks shape the economy.
Budapest · Hungary
Macroeconomics · Monetary policy
Current role
Research Economist - Ministry of Finance of Hungary
Main field
Empirical macroeconomics & monetary policy
Research Interests
Distributional Models, Nonlinear Dynamics, Causal Econometrics, Forecasting
Selected research
DISSERTATION · CHAPTER 1
Monetary Transmission in a Fragmented Uncertain World
How does uncertainty change the effectiveness of monetary policy? Evidence from Bayesian threshold VARs across 30 economies.
PUBLISHED · 2026
Nonlinear Transmission of Monetary Policy and Housing Market Imbalances: Evidence From a Factor-Augmented Threshold VAR Analysis
Housing-market states alter the behaviour of monetary policy and modestly amplify the contraction in real and financial aggregates.
DISSERTATION · CHAPTER 3
A Distributional Perspective on Forward Guidance and Monetary Policy along the US Term Structure
Monetary policy and forward guidance shocks move not only the conditional mean of yields, but also their conditional volatility.
POLICY RESEARCH · EIB
How Does Grant Design Shape Investment, Output, and Productivity in Europe?
Evidence on how the design and allocation of investment grants influence macroeconomic outcomes across EU economies.
Policy and research experience
2025 — present
Ministry of Finance of Hungary
Research Economist
Macroeconomic modelling, forecasting and scenario analysis in the Macro Division.
2025
European Investment Bank
Research Intern
Research on how government investment grants influence corporate investment and spill over to growth and productivity.
2023
International Monetary Fund
Research Intern
Research in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department on how economic policy uncertainty influences the monetary transmission mechanism.
GET IN TOUCH
Questions on monetary policy, forecasting, or applied econometrics are welcome.
I’m glad to hear from researchers, policymakers, or anyone working on related problems.