Papers

Last update: 2025/06/20

Published papers

  • Inflation Shock and Monetary Policy In: Mátyás, L. (eds) Central and Eastern European Economies and the War in Ukraine. Contributions to Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-61561-0_4
    • Joint work with Szilárd Benk and Norbert Szepesi
    • Abstract: The war in Ukraine triggered the most substantial surge in inflation rates in decades, posing a formidable challenge for the central banks of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to curb inflation without compromising the ongoing post-Covid recovery. This chapter provides a brief discussion of the factors contributing to the inflationary pressure and evaluates the monetary policy responses in the region. The root cause of the inflationary pressure lies primarily in supply-side shocks disrupting international trade channels as a consequence of the war. Countries with loose monetary conditions witnessed the most pronounced spike in inflation rates in the aftermath of the war. Despite these challenges, central banks responded promptly, implementing aggressive interest rate hikes, keeping monetary conditions tight throughout 2022 and well after inflation rates began to decrease in 2023.

Dissertation chapters

  • Chapter 1: Monetary Transmission in a fragmented uncertain world
    • Joint work with Tohid Atashbar (IMF) during the Fund Internship Program.
    • Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the nonlinear relationship between economic uncertainty and the monetary transmission mechanism. We use a Threshold Vector Autoregression model and impose sign-restrictions on quarterly interest rates, GDP growth, and CPI inflation across a broad range of countries. Our findings suggest that during periods of elevated uncertainty, monetary shocks lead to more profound economic contractions, followed by sluggish output adjustments. The effectiveness in curbing inflation exhibits mixed results contingent on the underlying uncertainty narrative. Nonetheless, the overarching trend in our results tends to support the notion that heightened uncertainty acts as a channel for propagating shocks, thereby amplifying their influence. Consequently, our implications for policymakers emphasize that while heightened uncertainty does not inherently hinder the transmission mechanism, it does disrupt monetary policy by escalating the costs associated with reducing inflation.
    • Stage: Conference-ready (Please click the link above to read the latest version of the working paper.)
  • Chapter 2: Nonlinear Transmission of Monetary Policy and Housing Market Imbalances: Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Threshold VAR Analysis?
    • Abstract: This paper discusses the US housing market from a monetary policy point of view. In recent years we saw a vast increase in real housing prices, which could be a consequence of the low interest rate environment. Recent economic developments causing heightened inflationary pressure however lead most central banks to start an aggressive interest rate rise policy, ending the low interest rate era. This leads us to the proposed question - could the interest rate hikes burst the housing bubble? To investigate this, I estimate a two-regime TVAR model dependent on housing prices using US data. Results show that although the size of the impact of an interest rate shock is similar in both regimes, its persistence much stronger when housing prices are high.
    • Stage: Conference-ready (Please click the link above to read the latest version of the working paper.)
  • Chapter 3: Guiding the Tails: Measuring the Impact of Forward Guidance on Yield-Curve Extremes
    • Abstract: TBA
    • Stage: Work in progress (Please feel free to reach out in case of interest.)

Ongoing research projects

  • Analysing the impact of grants on investments, output and productivity across EU economies
    • Joint work with Atanas Kolev (EIB) and Laurent Maurin (EIB) during the EIB Traineeship Program.
    • Abstract: In this paper, we investigate how shocks to government grants propagate through the European economies. We use Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with long-run restrictions to identify two types of grant shocks: demand-support type shocks which exert no long-run impact, and transformative grants, which permanently raise output and productivity. Furthermore using a novel dataset of Industrial Policy Measures since the GFC, we identify grant shocks with industrial policy motives. Preliminary results from a Panel Local Projections exercise confirms that coordination at the EU level is more effective at promoting growth and raising productivity.
    • Stage: Work in progress. (Please feel free to reach out in case of interest.)
  • Dynamics of geoeconomic fragmentation
    • Abstract: This paper investigates the macroeconomic impacts of geoeconomic fragmentation shocks identified using the Global Trade Alerts database. Impulse responses are estimated across a panel of economies using Local Projections to derive the dynamic impact of GEF shocks. Results indicate a short run demand contraction following these episodes, followed by a medium term upswing in domestic demand, and prolonged inflationary pressure in the long-run. These findings suggest that effective policy should focus on maintaining stable multilateral trade relations, providing short-term support to stabilize key economic sectors, and implementing measures to manage long-term inflationary pressures. Close monitoring of both domestic and foreign market dynamics is essential to tailor policies effectively and mitigate the adverse impacts of GEF shocks.
    • Stage: Work in progress / To be reworked. (Please feel free to reach out in case of interest.)

Further details and replication files can be found here.

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